Friday, Feb 8, 2013

1. THE POLITICAL CLIMATE: GLOBAL WARMING IS NOT INEVITABLE.

"Don't look back," Satchel Paige warned, "something may be gaining on you." Like maybe global warming? The 37-nation Kyoto Protocol to reduce greenhouse gas emissions terminated on 1 Jan 2013, having accomplished little or nothing in 15 years. Indeed, climate scientists find atmospheric carbon increasing faster than ever. If all this is true, and I believe it is, the vanishing of the Arctics summer sea-ice could mark a tipping point that will shift the Earth's climate into a new trajectory that could take millennia to reach a new equilibrium, as Clive Hamilton points out in a brilliant new book, Requiem for a Species. Sadly, the issue of climate change was almost totally ignored in the 2012 presidential election, pushed aside by class warfare. Speaking of class warfare, that's not getting better either.

2. PERSONHOOD: HOW MANY CELLS DOES IT TAKE TO MAKE A PERSON?

A month ago the US Supreme Court ended an effort to shut down government support of human embryonic stem cell research by refusing to hear a case that challenged the legality of such work at NIH. Good! Embryonic-stem- cell research is thought by many to be the most promising approach to treatment of numerous human diseases, but 20 years ago anti-abortionists pushed a bill through Congress banning the use of federal funds for research on human embryos. Some religions believe the Holy Ghost bestows a soul on a zygote at the moment of conception, making the zygote a one- celled person (see Whats New, 8 Nov 98). The Obama administration rejected this silly superstition, but it was kept alive in the courts by the appeal process. Rejection of the appeal by the Supreme Court assures resumption of potentially life-saving stem-cell research.

3. FERTILITY: HOW MANY PERSONS SHOULD THERE BE ON EARTH?

About 6 billion fewer than the 7 billion we have now would be nice. Our streams would again run clear, the Milky Way would return to the night sky, and cod fish to the Grand Banks. However, in last Saturday's Wall Street Journal, neoconservative writer Jonathan Last blamed a falling fertility rate for our financial problems. He seems unaware of other problems in the world. In fact, a modest decline in population is already seen in rich countries; that's why they're rich. But we live on a finite planet and there are already far too many of us. An average fertility rate of two would lead to a gradual reduction but there is no reason to hurry. Human history is largely an account of clumsy attempts to reduce populations by war. It usually has the opposite effect.

Bob Park can be reached via email at whatsnew@bobpark.org
THE UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND
Opinions are the author's and are not necessarily shared by the University, but they should be.