Friday, May 13, 2011
A kindly Vicar in rural Surry, the Reverend Robert Thomas Malthus was the
first to solve the population equation. In 1798, dismayed by the
inevitable consequences of exponential growth, he published An Essay on the
Principle of Population anonymously. It went on to become one of the most
important books of all time, and he added his name to subsequent editions.
Forty years later, a Belgian mathematician, Pierre-Francois Verhulst, added
a term to the Malthus differential equation to reflect the finite "carrying
capacity," or the number of individuals an environment can support. There
are only two ways to stabilize the population: reduce the fertility rate,
or shorten life expectancy. A believer in human perfectibility, Malthus
elected to reduce fertility by abstinence he didn't get many followers.
But today we have the Pill, the development of which must in the long run
be the most important technological advance of all time. A week ago, the
UN released a new world-population projection that reaches 10 billion in
2100. That's one billion more than it projected just three years ago. How
much confidence can you have in a 90 year projection if you're off by 15%
in the first three years? From a policy standpoint, it really doesn't
matter. The urgent task is to reduce the fertility rate as much as
possible. The world is already so far beyond sustainable that we needn't
worry about overshooting. Huge cultural/religious obstacles remain,
particularly in Africa, where Nigeria is expected to surpass the United
States as the third most populous nation in the world. There is already a
serious shortage of fresh water, phosphate rock, and fuel for mechanization
to sustain the green revolution. There will not be another green
revolution.
Of course they do, that's the whole point. That's why they can't cause
cancer. I promised last week that I would try to look into the concerns
raised by Bill Bruno, a Los Alamos physicist. However, it does not seem to
be a scientific issue. I was unable to find a scientific forum in which
Bruno has raised his concerns. In a letter to the Santa Fe New Mexican he
describes his personal health problems, which are typical of the condition
usually referred to as "electro-sensitivity" or "electromagnetic
hypersensitivity." According to a 2005 scientific review "the symptoms
described by 'electromagnetic hypersensitivity' sufferers can be severe and
are sometimes disabling. However, it has proved difficult to show under
blind conditions that exposure to electromagnetic fields can trigger these
symptoms. This suggests that 'electromagnetic hypersensitivity' is
unrelated to the presence of electromagnetic fields, although more research
is required." Psychosomatic Medicine 67 (2): 22432.
In the fog of war, a severely wounded soldier calls out in agony for
morphine. A medic braves enemy fire to reach the injured soldier, but
wait, that's not a hypodermic needle he's inserting, it's an acupuncture
needle. In Kenya, a 27-year-old man with third-stage HIV is concerned
about side effects from antiretroviral drugs. Not to worry, the doctor has
decided to start him on course of homeopathic medicines. Next week well
discuss what isn't happening in alternative medicine, and why.
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