Friday, 28 December 2001

1. ARMS REDUCTION: BUSH NOW BELIEVES SUCH PROGRAMS ARE WORKING.
Back in March, the President was openly skeptical of $750M being spent to assist Russia in the destruction of nuclear and chemical weapons. When National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice ordered a review of 30 such programs (WN 30 Mar 01), it was seen as a first step in a move to eliminate or reduce them. Yesterday, however, in a remarkable display of Presidential flexibility, President Bush issued a statement saying most of the programs appear to be worthwhile and pledged more money to help Russia in such projects as disposing of weapons grade plutonium.

2. BASKERVILLE EFFECT: IS SUPERSTITIOUS FEAR A HEALTH RISK?
Actually, this was not a really big week for science-policy news. What we did find was a report in the British Medical Journal that Chinese and Japanese Americans have a 7% greater death rate from chronic heart disease on the 4th day of the month. There was no such peak in the deaths of white Americans. Since both Chinese and Japanese regard the number four as unlucky, the researchers conclude that cardiac mortality increases on psychologically stressful occasions. They named the effect after Charles Baskerville, a character in the Arthur Conan Doyle story "The Hound of the Baskervilles," who suffers a fatal heart attack from extreme psychological stress. This led the principal author, UCSD sociologist David Phillips, to conclude that Conan Doyle "was not only a great writer but a remarkably intuitive physician as well." Whoa! Sir Arthur Conan Doyle was in fact hopelessly superstitious, believing devoutly in the existence of fairies.

3. UNBASKERVILLE EFFECT: IF SUPERSTITION CAN KILL, CAN IT CURE?
A 1999 study claimed that coronary patients in a Kansas City hospital did better if volunteers prayed for them without their knowledge (WN 29 Oct 99). But a just-released study at the Mayo Clinic found no significant difference between heart patients who were the object of intercessory prayers and those who were not.

4. WHAT WILL BE NEW IN 2002: WN's ANNUAL LOOK INTO THE FUTURE.
Properly interpreted, predictions for 2001 (WN 29 Dec 00) were right on target. Once again WN puts its reputation on the line:

  • Now that it's been shown that YUCCA MOUNTAIN won't be the site of a new volcano, proponents of the nuclear waste site will be asked to show it can withstand an asteroid impact.
  • Every 2002 NATIONAL MISSILE DEFENSE test, once properly analyzed by the Pentagon, will be scored as a success.
  • The INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION will be privatized. It may be acquired by Marriot for use as an executive suite.


Bob Park can be reached via email at whatsnew@bobpark.org
THE UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND
Opinions are the author's and are not necessarily shared by the University, but they should be.